Directions, Rotations, and Hyperspheres
Directional statistics involve data and/or parameters that are constrained to be directions. The set of directions forms a sphere, the geometry of which is not smoothly mappable to that of a Euclidean space because you can move around a sphere and come back to where you started. This is why it is impossible to make a map of the globe on a flat piece of paper where all points that are close to each other on the globe are close to each other on the flat map. The fundamental problem is easy to visualize in two dimensions, because as you move around a circle, you wind up back where you started. In other words, 0 degrees and 360 degrees (equivalently, 0 and \(2 \pi\) radians) pick out the same point, and the distance between 359 degrees and 2 degrees is the same as the distance between 137 and 140 degrees.
Stan supports directional statistics by providing a unit-vector data type, the values of which determine points on a hypersphere (circle in two dimensions, sphere in three dimensions).
Unit vectors
The length of a vector \(x \in \mathbb{R}^K\) is given by \[ \Vert x \Vert = \sqrt{x^{\top}\,x} = \sqrt{x_1^2 + x_2^2 + \cdots + x_K^2}. \] Unit vectors are defined to be vectors of unit length (i.e., length one).
With a variable declaration such as
unit_vector[K] x;the value of x will be constrained to be a vector of size K with unit length; the reference manual chapter on constrained parameter transforms provides precise definitions.
Warning: An extra term gets added to the log density to ensure the distribution on unit vectors is proper. This is not a problem in practice, but it may lead to misunderstandings of the target log density output (lp__ in some interfaces). The underlying source of the problem is that a unit vector of size \(K\) has only \(K - 1\) degrees of freedom. But there is no way to map those \(K - 1\) degrees of freedom continuously to \(\mathbb{R}^N\)—for example, the circle can’t be mapped continuously to a line so the limits work out, nor can a sphere be mapped to a plane. A workaround is needed instead. Stan’s unit vector transform uses \(K\) unconstrained variables, then projects down to the unit hypersphere. Even though the hypersphere is compact, the result would be an improper distribution. To ensure the unit vector distribution is proper, each unconstrained variable is given a “Jacobian” adjustment equal to an independent standard normal distribution. Effectively, each dimension is drawn standard normal, then they are together projected down to the hypersphere to produce a unit vector. The result is a proper uniform distribution over the hypersphere.
Circles, spheres, and hyperspheres
An \(n\)-sphere, written \(S^{n}\), is defined as the set of \((n + 1)\)-dimensional unit vectors, \[ S^{n} = \left\{ x \in \mathbb{R}^{n+1} \: : \: \Vert x \Vert = 1 \right\}. \]
Even though \(S^n\) is made up of points in \((n+1)\) dimensions, it is only an \(n\)-dimensional manifold. For example, \(S^2\) is defined as a set of points in \(\mathbb{R}^3\), but each such point may be described uniquely by a latitude and longitude. Geometrically, the surface defined by \(S^2\) in \(\mathbb{R}^3\) behaves locally like a plane, i.e., \(\mathbb{R}^2\). However, the overall shape of \(S^2\) is not like a plane in that it is compact (i.e., there is a maximum distance between points). If you set off around the globe in a “straight line” (i.e., a geodesic), you wind up back where you started eventually; that is why the geodesics on the sphere (\(S^2\)) are called “great circles,” and why we need to use some clever representations to do circular or spherical statistics.
Even though \(S^{n-1}\) behaves locally like \(\mathbb{R}^{n-1}\), there is no way to smoothly map between them. For example, because latitude and longitude work on a modular basis (wrapping at \(2\pi\) radians in natural units), they do not produce a smooth map.
Like a bounded interval \((a, b)\), in geometric terms, a sphere is compact in that the distance between any two points is bounded.
Transforming to unconstrained parameters
Stan (inverse) transforms arbitrary points in \(\mathbb{R}^{K+1}\) to points in \(S^K\) using the auxiliary variable approach of Muller (1959). A point \(y \in \mathbb{R}^K\) is transformed to a point \(x \in S^{K-1}\) by \[ x = \frac{y}{\sqrt{y^{\top} y}}. \]
The problem with this mapping is that it’s many to one; any point lying on a vector out of the origin is projected to the same point on the surface of the sphere. Muller (1959) introduced an auxiliary variable interpretation of this mapping that provides the desired properties of uniformity; the reference manual contains the precise definitions used in the chapter on constrained parameter transforms.
Warning: undefined at zero!
The above mapping from \(\mathbb{R}^n\) to \(S^n\) is not defined at zero. While this point outcome has measure zero during sampling, and may thus be ignored, it is the default initialization point and thus unit vector parameters cannot be initialized at zero. A simple workaround is to initialize from a small interval around zero, which is an option built into all of the Stan interfaces.
Unit vectors and rotations
Unit vectors correspond directly to angles and thus to rotations. This is easy to see in two dimensions, where a point on a circle determines a compass direction, or equivalently, an angle \(\theta\). Given an angle \(\theta\), a matrix can be defined, the pre-multiplication by which rotates a point by an angle of \(\theta\). For angle \(\theta\) (in two dimensions), the \(2 \times 2\) rotation matrix is defined by \[ R_{\theta} = \begin{bmatrix} \cos \theta & -\sin \theta \\ \sin \theta & \cos \theta \end{bmatrix}. \] Given a two-dimensional vector \(x\), \(R_{\theta} \, x\) is the rotation of \(x\) (around the origin) by \(\theta\) degrees.
Angles from unit vectors
Angles can be calculated from unit vectors. For example, a random variable theta representing an angle in \((-\pi, \pi)\) radians can be declared as a two-dimensional unit vector then transformed to an angle.
parameters {
unit_vector[2] xy;
}
transformed parameters {
real<lower=-pi(), upper=pi()> theta = atan2(xy[2], xy[1]);
}If the distribution of \((x, y)\) is uniform over a circle, then the distribution of \(\arctan \frac{y}{x}\) is uniform over \((-\pi, \pi)\).
It might be tempting to try to just declare theta directly as a parameter with the lower and upper bound constraint as given above. The drawback to this approach is that the values \(-\pi\) and \(\pi\) are at \(-\infty\) and \(\infty\) on the unconstrained scale, which can produce multimodal posterior distributions when the true distribution on the circle is unimodal.
With a little additional work on the trigonometric front, the same conversion back to angles may be accomplished in more dimensions.
Circular representations of days and years
A 24-hour clock naturally represents the progression of time through the day, moving from midnight to noon and back again in one rotation. A point on a circle divided into 24 hours is thus a natural representation for the time of day. Similarly, years cycle through the seasons and return to the season from which they started.
In human affairs, temporal effects often arise by convention. These can be modeled directly with ad-hoc predictors for holidays and weekends, or with data normalization back to natural scales for daylight savings time.