June 27, 2016

## Bayesian Perspective on Hierarchical Models

• Hierchical models are essentially models with interaction terms between predictors and group-indicators with the additional provisions that:
• Group deviations are from a common mean rather than a baseline
• Include distributional assumptions for how the groups deviate
• Suppose there are $$J$$ groups and $$N_j$$ observations in the $$j$$-th group and $y_{ij} \thicksim \mathcal{N}\left(\mu_{ij},\sigma\right) \forall i,j$ $\mu_{ij} = \left(\alpha + a_j\right) + \left(\beta + b_j\right)x_{ij} = \alpha + \beta x_{ij} + a_j + b_j x_{ij} \forall i,j$ $\begin{bmatrix}a_j\\ b_j \end{bmatrix} \thicksim \mathcal{N}_{2}\left(\begin{bmatrix} 0 \\ 0 \end{bmatrix}, \begin{bmatrix} \sigma_a^2 & \rho \sigma_a \sigma_b \\ \rho \sigma_a \sigma_b & \sigma_b^2 \end{bmatrix}\right) \forall j$
• Bayesians put priors on the common parameters $$\sigma$$, $$\alpha$$, $$\beta$$, $$\rho$$, $$\sigma_a$$, and $$\sigma_b$$

## Frequentist Perspective on Hierarchical Models

• For frequentists, $$a_j + b_j x_{ij}$$ is part of the error term; thus
• Observations within group $$j$$ aren't conditionally independent given $$\alpha$$ & $$\beta$$
• Frequentists are willing to make distributional assumptions about $$a_j$$ and $$b_j$$ (invariably bivariate normal). Let $$\boldsymbol{\Sigma} = \begin{bmatrix} \sigma_a^2 & \rho \sigma_a \sigma_b \\ \rho \sigma_a \sigma_b & \sigma_b^2 \end{bmatrix}$$ and
$z_{ij} = \int\limits _{-\infty}^{\infty} \int\limits _{-\infty}^{\infty} { \frac{1}{\sigma \sqrt{2 \pi}}{ e^{-0.5 \left(\frac{y_{ij} - \alpha - \beta x_{ij} - a_j - b_j x_{ij}}{\sigma} \right)^2}} \frac{1}{\left|\boldsymbol{\Sigma}\right|}e^{-0.5 \begin{bmatrix} a_j \\ b_j \end{bmatrix}^\top \boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{-1} \begin{bmatrix} a_j \\ b_j \end{bmatrix}} \ da_j db_j}$
• This particular integral happens to have a closed-form solution and one can choose $$\sigma$$, $$\alpha$$, $$\beta$$, $$\rho$$, $$\sigma_a$$, and $$\sigma_b$$ to maximize $$\sum_{j=1}^J \sum_{i=1}^{N_j} \ln z_{ij}$$
• But maximum likelihood is not a great estimator here so people penalize

## Limitations of Frequentist Perspective

• For frequentists, $$a_j$$ and $$b_j$$ are not parameters and thus cannot be estimated
• $$a_j$$ and $$b_j$$ can be predicted from group $$j$$'s residuals implied by $$\widehat{\alpha}$$ and $$\widehat{\beta}$$
• Since $$a_j$$ and $$b_j$$ are not estimated, you cannot construct standard errors
• Thus, you cannot make frequentist inferences about $$a_j$$ and / or $$b_j$$
• You can conceptualize standard errors for the estimator of the common parameters $$\sigma$$, $$\alpha$$, $$\beta$$, $$\rho$$, $$\sigma_a$$, and $$\sigma_b$$ but they are hard to calculate unless you treat the predictions of $$a_j$$ and $$b_j$$ as given
• To obtain a closed-form likelihood function to maximize, you have to assume normality both for the outcome (conditional on $$x_{ij}$$) and for $$a_j, b_j$$. Otherwise, you get all of the computational difficulty with intractable integrals that Bayesians avoid with MCMC and none of the benefit in interpretation.
• The optimization process is not nearly as routine as it is for flat GLMs, and you often get corner solutions where $$\widehat{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}}$$ is not positive definite

## The stan_glmer Function

• The [g]lmer functions in the lme4 R package are very popular because people want to quickly estimate hierarchical models with a convenient syntax and interpret the results as if they were Bayesian
• But you can slowly estimate hierarchical models using the same convenient syntax by using the stan_glmer function in the rstanarm R package and interpret the results in a genuinely Bayesian fashion
post <- stan_glmer(Days ~ (1 | Age : Sex : Eth : Lrn), data = MASS::quine,
family = "neg_binomial_2")

## Results

summary(post, probs = c(.25, .75))
## stan_glmer(formula = Days ~ (1 | Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn), data = MASS::quine,
##     family = "neg_binomial_2")
##
## Family: neg_binomial_2 (log)
## Algorithm: sampling
## Posterior sample size: 4000
## Observations: 146
## Groups: Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn 28
##
## Estimates:
##                                            mean   sd     25%    75%
## (Intercept)                                 2.7    0.1    2.6    2.8
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:F:A:AL]    0.3    0.3    0.0    0.5
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:F:A:SL]   -0.3    0.5   -0.6    0.1
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:F:N:AL]    0.2    0.3    0.0    0.4
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:F:N:SL]    0.2    0.5   -0.1    0.5
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:M:A:AL]    0.0    0.3   -0.3    0.2
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:M:A:SL]   -0.2    0.4   -0.5    0.1
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:M:N:AL]   -0.6    0.4   -0.9   -0.4
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:M:N:SL]    0.5    0.4    0.2    0.7
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:F:A:AL]   -0.1    0.3   -0.4    0.1
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:F:A:SL]    0.4    0.3    0.2    0.6
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:F:N:AL]   -0.2    0.3   -0.4    0.1
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:F:N:SL]   -0.7    0.3   -0.9   -0.5
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:M:A:AL]   -0.1    0.4   -0.4    0.2
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:M:A:SL]   -0.2    0.4   -0.5    0.1
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:M:N:AL]   -0.5    0.5   -0.8   -0.2
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:M:N:SL]   -0.6    0.3   -0.8   -0.3
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:F:A:AL]   -0.3    0.6   -0.7    0.0
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:F:A:SL]    0.7    0.3    0.5    0.9
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:F:N:AL]   -0.4    0.6   -0.7    0.0
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:F:N:SL]   -0.6    0.3   -0.8   -0.4
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:M:A:AL]    0.5    0.3    0.3    0.7
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:M:A:SL]    0.7    0.4    0.4    0.9
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:M:N:AL]   -0.3    0.3   -0.5   -0.1
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:M:N:SL]    0.5    0.4    0.2    0.7
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F3:F:A:AL]    0.0    0.3   -0.2    0.2
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F3:F:N:AL]    0.0    0.3   -0.2    0.1
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F3:M:A:AL]    0.5    0.3    0.3    0.7
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F3:M:N:AL]    0.5    0.3    0.3    0.7
## overdispersion                              1.5    0.2    1.3    1.6
## mean_PPD                                   16.7    2.0   15.3   18.0
## log-posterior                            -585.9    5.8 -589.5 -581.8
##
## Diagnostics:
##                                          mcse Rhat n_eff
## (Intercept)                              0.0  1.0  1516
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:F:A:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:F:A:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:F:N:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:F:N:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:M:A:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:M:A:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:M:N:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F0:M:N:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:F:A:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:F:A:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:F:N:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:F:N:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:M:A:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:M:A:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:M:N:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F1:M:N:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:F:A:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:F:A:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:F:N:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:F:N:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:M:A:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:M:A:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:M:N:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F2:M:N:SL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F3:F:A:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F3:F:N:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F3:M:A:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## b[(Intercept) Age:Sex:Eth:Lrn:F3:M:N:AL] 0.0  1.0  4000
## overdispersion                           0.0  1.0  4000
## mean_PPD                                 0.0  1.0  4000
## log-posterior                            0.2  1.0  1031
##
## For each parameter, mcse is Monte Carlo standard error, n_eff is a crude measure of effective sample size, and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence Rhat=1).

## Workflow for Stan via the rstan R Pakcage

1. You write the program in a (text) .stan file in the Stan language
2. Stan's parser, stanc, does two things:
• checks that program is syntactically valid and tells you if not
• writes a conceptually equivalent C++ source file to disk
3. C++ compiler creates a binary file from the C++ source
• C++ also facilitates autodifferentiation
5. You execute the binary from R (can be concurrent with 2 – 4)
6. You analyze the resulting draws from the posterior

## Primitive Object Types in Stan

• In Stan / C++, variables must first be declared with types
• In Stan / C++, statements are terminated with semi-colons
• Primitive scalar declarations: real x; or int K;
• Unknowns cannot be int. No derivatives and hence no HMC
• Can condition on integer data. No derivatives are needed
• Real declarations: vector[K] z;, row_vector[K] zt;, matrix[N,K] X;
• Arrays are just holders of any other homogenous objects, like an R list where are elements are restricted to be the same type and shape
• Vectors and matrices cannot contain genuinely integer data so use integer array declarations: int y[N]; or int Y[N,P];

## Builtin Functions in Stan

• rstan has a function called lookup
• Input the name of an R functionto find an analagous Stan function
• Input a regular expression to find all matching Stan functions
suppressPackageStartupMessages(library(rstan))
lookup("besselK")
##                    StanFunction       Arguments ReturnType Page
## 290 modified_bessel_second_kind (int v, real z)       real  342

## Optional functions Block of a Stan Program

• Stan permits users to define and use their own functions
• If used, must be defined in a leading functions block
• Can only validate constraints inside user-defined functions
• Very useful for several reasons
1. Easier to reuse across different .stan programs
2. Makes subsequent chunks of code more readable
3. Enables likelihoods with Ordinary Differential Equations
4. Can be exported to R via expose_stan_functions
• All functions, whether user-defined or build-in, must be called by argument position rather than by argument name, and there are no default arguments
• See cumprod.stan file

## Constrained Object Declarations in Stan

• Any primitive object can have lower and / or upper bounds if declared in the data, transformed data, parameters, or transformed parameters blocks
• int<lower=1> K; real<lower=-1,upper=1> rho;
• vector<lower=0>[K] alpha; and similarly for a matrix
• Alternatively, a vector can be specialized as
1. unit_vector[K] x; implies $$\sum_{k=1}^K{x_k^2} = 1$$
2. unit_vector[K] x; implies $$x_k \geq 0 \forall k$$ and $$\sum_{k=1}^K{x_k} = 1$$
3. ordered[K] x; implies $$x_i \leq x_j \forall i<j$$
4. positive_ordered[K] x; implies also $$0 \leq x_1$$
• Alternatively, a matrix can be specialized as
1. cov_matrix[K] Sigma or better cholesky_factor_cov[K,K] L;
2. corr_matrix[K] Lambda or better cholesky_factor_corr[K] L;

## Required data Block of a Stan Program

• Contains declarations for everything being conditioned on in Bayes Rule
• Each such object needs to be passed from R as a named list
• Can have comments in C++ style (// comment or /* comment */)
• Whitespace is essentially irrelevant

data {
int<lower=1> N; // number of observations
int<lower=1> K; // number of predictors
matrix[N, K] X; // design matrix
vector[N]    y; // outcomes
real<lower=0> prior_scale; // hyperparameter
}

## Optional transformed data Block

• Is executed only once before the iterations start
• Used to calculate needed deterministic functions of objects in the data block
• Can use it to check that data was passed correctly from R
• All declarations must come directly after the opening {

transformed data {
vector[N] log_y;
log_y = log(y);
}

## Required parameters Block of a Stan Program

• Declare everything whose posterior distribution is sought
• Cannot declare int parameters
• Cannot do assignments within the parameters block
• Must specify the sample space of the parameters but lower and upper bounds are implicitly $$\pm\infty$$ if unspecified

parameters {
vector[K] beta;
real<lower=0> sigma_unscaled; // Jacobian handled automatically here
}

## Optional transformed parameters Block

• Like transformed data but involves objects declared in the parameters block and is evaluated each leapfrog step
• Constraints are validated and draws are stored

transformed parameters {
real<lower=0> sigma;
sigma = sigma_unscaled * prior_scale;
}

## Required model Block of a Stan Program

• Builds up a evaluation of the log-kernel function with the target keyword
• Can declare local objects at the top of the model block and then assign to them but draws are not stored

model {
vector[N] eta;
eta = X * beta;
target += normal_lpdf(log_y | eta, sigma);      // likelihood of log(y)
target += normal_lpdf(beta | 0, 5);             // prior for each beta_k
target += exponential_lpdf(sigma_unscaled | 1); // prior for sigma_unscaled
}
• Can increment target with user-defined functions or arbitrary expressions

## Optional generated quantities Block

• Only evaluated once per iteration
• Useful to declare and define objects of interest that do not go into the likelihood function
• Can reference any object declared in data, transformed data, parameters, or transformed parameters blocks
• Can use pseduo-random number generation

generated quantities {
vector[N] y_rep; // posterior beliefs about each y[n]
for (n in 1:N) y_rep[n] = normal_rng(X[n,] * beta, sigma);
}

## Calling a Stan Program

state.x77 <- within(as.data.frame(state.x77), { # choose reasonable units
Density <- Population / Area
Income <- Income / 1000
Frost <- Frost / 100
})
X <- model.matrix(Murder ~ Density + Income + Illiteracy + Frost, data = state.x77)
y <- state.x77\$Murder
data_block <- list(N = nrow(X), K = ncol(X), X = X, y = y, prior_scale = 5)
options(mc.cores = parallel::detectCores())
post <- stan("regression.stan", data = data_block)

## Results

print(post, pars = 'y_rep', include = FALSE, digits = 2, probs = c(.25, .75))
## Inference for Stan model: regression.
## 4 chains, each with iter=2000; warmup=1000; thin=1;
## post-warmup draws per chain=1000, total post-warmup draws=4000.
##
##                  mean se_mean   sd    25%    75% n_eff Rhat
## beta[1]          0.74    0.02 0.74   0.22   1.24  1348    1
## beta[2]         -0.60    0.01 0.33  -0.81  -0.37  2295    1
## beta[3]          0.17    0.00 0.13   0.08   0.26  1598    1
## beta[4]          0.57    0.00 0.16   0.46   0.69  1671    1
## beta[5]         -0.22    0.00 0.18  -0.34  -0.11  1847    1
## sigma_unscaled   0.10    0.00 0.01   0.09   0.10  2271    1
## sigma            0.48    0.00 0.05   0.44   0.51  2271    1
## lp__           -48.00    0.05 1.79 -49.01 -46.66  1518    1
##
## Samples were drawn using NUTS(diag_e) at Mon Jun 27 15:11:23 2016.
## For each parameter, n_eff is a crude measure of effective sample size,
## and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor on split chains (at
## convergence, Rhat=1).
##  The estimated Bayesian Fraction of Missing Information is a measure of
##  the efficiency of the sampler with values close to 1 being ideal.
##  For each chain, these estimates are
##  1 0.9 0.9 1

## Diagnostics

CA_rep <- extract(post, pars = 'y_rep')[[1]][,which(rownames(state.x77) == "California")]
hist(state.x77["California", "Murder"] - exp(CA_rep), prob = TRUE,
main = "Errors for California", las = 1)

## Implementing a Hierarchical Poisson Model

• Let's write a Stan program for a count model with group-specific intercepts
• To simplify, let's use a Poisson likelihood with a log link from $$\lambda$$ to $$\eta$$ instead of the negative binomial. This involves the poisson_log_lpmf function.
• Hints: Can use R-style subsetting and here is a data block to get you started

data {
int<lower=1> N;                    // number of observations
int<lower=0> y[N];                 // outcomes
int<lower=1> J;                    // number of groups
int<lower=1, upper=J> group_ID[N]; // what group is y[n] in?
real<lower=0> prior_scale_group;   // hyperparameter
}

## Summary

• You can write almost any posterior log-kernel (whose parameters are continuous) in the Stan language
• Whether Stan samples efficiently depends on how numerically stable your Stan program is
• But Stan will have no problem with a multivariate normal
• Stan has no problem with a lot of non-normal posteriors
• If Stan has problems, you can usually work around them
• If you cannot get around those problems, other software will usually suffer from them too without being as easy to diagnose
• Easy to include particular Stan program(s) in a package like rstanarm does; see the rstan.package.skeleton function in the rstan package