Predator-Prey Population Dynamics:
the Lotka-Volterra model in Stan

Bob Carpenter

28 January 2018

Abstract

Lotka (1925) and Volterra (1926) formulated parameteric differential equations that characterize the oscillating populations of predators and prey. A statistical model to account for measurement error and unexplained variation uses the deterministic solutions to the Lotka-Volterra equations as expected population sizes. Stan is used to encode the statistical model and perform full Bayesian inference to solve the inverse problem of inferring parameters from noisy data. The model is fit to Canadian lynx1 Predator: Canadian lynx