- About conditional autoregressive models
- Adding an ICAR component to a Stan model
- Example: disease mapping using the Besag York Mollié model
- BYM2: improving the parameterization of the Besag, York, and Mollié model
- Bigger data: from 56 counties in Scotland to 1921 census tracts in New York City
- Discussion
- Acknowledgements
- References

When areal data has a spatial structure such that observations from neighboring regions exhibit higher correlation than distant regions, this correlation can be accounted for using the class of spatial models called “CAR” models (Conditional Auto-Regressive) introduced by Besag (Besag 1974). Intrinsic Conditional Auto-Regressive (ICAR) models are a subclass of CAR models. The Besag York Mollié (BYM) model is a lognormal Poisson model which includes both an ICAR component for spatial smoothing and an ordinary random-effects component for non-spatial heterogeneity. This case study covers how to efficiently code these models in Stan.

All models and data files are available in the Stan example-models GitHub repo for Stan case studies: car-iar-poisson. All commands should be run from the directory `stan-dev/example-models/knitr/car-iar-poisson`

.

CAR models are used for areal data consisting of a single aggregated measure per areal unit, which may be a binary, count, or continuous value. Areal units are volumes, more precisely, areal units partition a multi-dimensional volume D into a finite number of sub-volumes with well-defined boundaries. Areal data differs from point data, which consists of measurements from a known set of geo-spatial points. For point data, the relationship between points is a continuous, real-valued distance measure. For areal units, the relationship between areal units is characterized in terms of adjacency.

Given a set of observations taken at \(n\) different areal units of a region, spatial interactions between a pair of units \(n_i\) and \(n_j\) can be modelled conditionally as a spatial random variable \(\mathbf{\phi}\), which is an \(n\)-length vector \(\mathbf{\phi} = ({\phi}_1, \ldots, {\phi}_n)^T\).

For CAR models, spatial relationship between the \(n\) areal units are represented as an adjacency matrix \(W\) with dimensions \(n \times n\) where entries \(w_{i,j}\) and \(w_{j,i}\) are positive when regions \({n_i}\) and \({n_j}\) are neighbors and zero otherwise. The *neighbor* relationship \(i \sim j\) is defined in terms of this matrix: the neighbors of region \(i\) are those regions who have non-zero entries in row or column \(i\). This encoding defines a lattice structure over the \(n\) areal units.

Besag (1974) motivates CAR models for spatial processes using results from the physics of lattice systems of particles and the Hammersley-Clifford theorem which provides an equivalence between a local specification of the conditional distribution of each particle given its neighboring particles and the global specification of the joint distribution of all particles. This specification of the joint distribution via the local specification of the conditional distributions of the individual variables is a Markov random field (MRF) specification. The conditional distribution for each \({\phi}_i\) is specified in terms of a mean and precision parameter \(\tau\) as:

\[ p \left( { \phi }_i \, \vert\, {\phi}_j \, j \neq i, {{\tau}_i}^{-1} \right) = \mathit{N} \left( \alpha \sum_{i \sim j} {w}_{i,j} {\phi}_j,\tau_i^{-1} \right), i,j = 1, \ldots, n \]

The parameter \(\alpha\) controls the strength of the spatial association, where \(\alpha = 0\) corresponds to spatial independence.

The corresponding joint distribution can be uniquely determined from the set of full conditional distributions by introducing a fixed point from the support of \(p\) and then using Brook’s Lemma to factor the set of conditional distributions into a joint distribution which is determined up to a proportionality constant (see Banerjee, Carlin, and Gelfand, 2004, sec. 3.2):

\[ \mathbf{\phi} \sim \mathit{N} \left(\mathbf{0}, \left[D_{\tau}(I - \alpha B)\right]^{-1} \right) \]

where

- \(\alpha\) is between 0 and 1
- \(B\) is the \(n \times n\) matrix weights matrix \(W\) where entries \(\{i,i\}\) are zero and the off-diagonal elements describe the spatial proximity of regions \(n_i\) and \(n_j\)
- \(I\) is an \(n \times n\) identity matrix
- \(D_{\tau} = \tau D\) where D is an \(n \times n\) diagonal matrix

The construction of the spatial proximity matrix \(B\) determines the class of CAR model structure.

In the case where \(B\) is a positive definite matrix, then the CAR model structure is a fully generative model. However evaluation of the joint distribution requires computing the covariance matrix described by \([D_{\tau}(I - \alpha B)]^{-1}\), which is computationally expensive. See the Stan case study Exact sparse CAR models in Stan, for further discussion of CAR models.

An Intrinsic Conditional Auto-Regressive (ICAR) model is a CAR model where:

- \(\alpha = 1\)
- \(D\) is an \(n \times n\) diagonal matrix where \(d_{i,i}\) = the number of neighbors for region \(n_i\)
- \(B\) is the scaled weights matrix \(W / D\), where \(W\) is uses a binary encoding such that \(w_{i,i} = 0, w_{i,j} = 1\) if \(i\) is a neighbor of \(j\), and \(w_{i,j}=0\) otherwise

The corresponding conditional distribution specification is:

\[ p \left( { \phi }_i \, \vert\, {\phi}_j \, j \neq i, {{\tau}_i}^{-1} \right) = \mathit{N} \left( \frac{\sum_{i \sim j} {\phi}_{i}}{d_{i,i}}, \frac{1}{d_{i,i} {\tau}_i} \right)\]

where \(d_{i,i}\) is the number of neighbors for region \(n_i\). The individual spatial random variable \({\phi}_i\) for region \(n_i\) which has a set of neighbors \(j \neq i\) whose cardinality is \(d_{i,i}\), is normally distributed with a mean equal to the average of its neighbors. Its variance decreases as the number of neighbors increases.

The joint distribution simplifies to:

\[\phi \sim N(0, [\tau \, (D - W)]^{-1}).\]

which rewrites to the *pairwise difference* formulation:

\[ p(\phi | \tau) \propto {\tau}^{\frac{n - NC}{2}} \exp \left\{ {- \frac{\tau}{2}} \sum_{i \sim j}{({\phi}_i - {\phi}_j)}^2 \right\} \]

where \(NC\) is the number of components in the graph over all areal subregions defined by the spatial proximity matrix; \(NC == 1\) when the areal graph is fully connected, i.e., every subregion can be reached from every other subregion via a sequence of neighbors.

The above conditions for the ICAR model produce an improper distribution because setting \(\alpha = 1\) creates a singular matrix \((D - W)\), see Besag and Kooperberg 1995. Furthermore, the joint distribution is non-identifiable; adding any constant to all of the elements of \(\phi\) leaves the joint distribution unchanged. Adding the constraint \(\sum_{i} {\phi}_i = 0\) resolves this problem.

While this ICAR model is non-generating in that it cannot be used as a model for the data, it can be used as a prior as part of a hierarchical model, which is the role it plays in the BYM model.

The jump from the joint distribution to the pairwise difference requires a little reasoning about the matrix \(D - W\) and a lot of algebra, which we present here. As stated above, the notation \(i \sim j\) indicates that \(i\) and \(j\) are neighbors.

To compute with a unit multivariate Gaussian, we set \(\tau\) to 1 so that the joint distribution for for vector-valued random variable \(\phi = {[{\phi}_1, \ldots, {\phi}_n]}^T\) is:

\[\phi \sim N(0, [D - W]^{-1}).\]

with probability density function:

\[ p(\phi) \propto {(2 \, \pi)}^{-{n / 2}} \, {\begin{vmatrix} [D - W]^{-1} \end{vmatrix}}^{1/2} \exp \left( -{\frac{1}{2}} {\phi}^T [D - W] \phi \right) \]

Terms \({(2 \, \pi)}^{-{n / 2}}\) and \({\vert[D - W]^{-1} \vert}^{1/2}\) are constants with respect to \(\phi\) and can be dropped from the computation:

\[ p(\phi) \propto \exp \left( -{\frac{1}{2}} {\phi}^T [D - W] \phi \right) \]

Stan computes on the log scale, so the log probability density is:

\[ \begin{align} \log p(\phi) &= -{\frac{1}{2}} {\phi}^T [D - W] \phi + \mbox{const} \\ &= -{\frac{1}{2}} \left( \sum_{i,j} {\phi}_i {[D - W]}_{i,j} {\phi}_j \right) + \mbox{const} \\ &= -{\frac{1}{2}} \left( \sum_{i,j} {\phi}_i\,{\phi}_j D_{i,j} - \sum_{i,j} {\phi}_i\,{\phi}_j W_{i,j} \right) + \mbox{const} \\ &= -{\frac{1}{2}} \left( \sum_{i} {{\phi}_i}^2\,D_{i,i} - \sum_{i \sim j} 2\ {\phi}_i\,{\phi}_j \right) + \mbox{const} \\ &= -{\frac{1}{2}} \left( \sum_{i \sim j} ({{\phi}_i}^2 + {{\phi}_j}^2) - \sum_{i \sim j} 2\ {\phi}_i\,{\phi}_j \right) + \mbox{const} \\ &= -{\frac{1}{2}} \left( \sum_{i \sim j} {{\phi}_i}^2 - 2\ {\phi}_i\,{\phi}_j + {{\phi}_j}^2 \right) + \mbox{const} \\ &= -{\frac{1}{2}} \left( \sum_{i \sim j} {({\phi}_i - {\phi}_j)}^2 \right) + \mbox{const} \end{align} \]

Since \(D\) is the diagonal matrix where \(D_{i,i}\) is the number of neighbors and the off-diagonal entries have value \(0\). The expression \(\sum_{i,j} {\phi}_i\,{\phi}_j D_{i,j}\) rewrites to terms \({{\phi}_i}^2\) where the number of each \({\phi_i}\) terms is given by \(D_{i,i}\). For each pair of adjacent regions \(\{i,j\}\) and \(\{j,i\}\), one \({\phi}^2\) term each is contributed, so we can rewrite this in terms of \(i \sim j\). Since \(W\) is the adjacency matrix where \(w_{ii} = 0, w_{ij} = 1\) if \(i\) is a neighbor of \(j\), and \(w_{ij}=0\) otherwise, the expression \(\sum_{i,j} {\phi}_i\,{\phi}_j W_{i,j}\) rewrite to terms \(2 \, {\phi}_i {\phi}_j\), since there are two entries in \(W\) for each pair of adjacent regions. When both expressions are over \(i \sim j\), we combine, rearrange, and reduce.

We check our work by a simple example using 4 regions \(\{a, b, c, d\}\) where \(a\) is adjacent to \(b\), \(b\) is adjacent to \(c\), and \(c\) is adjacent to \(d\). The diagonal matrix \(D\) \[\begin{pmatrix}\ 1\ 0\ 0\ 0\ \\ \ 0\ 2\ 0\ 0\ \\ \ 0\ 0\ 2\ 0\ \\ \ 0\ 0\ 0\ 1\ \end{pmatrix}\] contributes terms \(a^2, b^2, b^2, c^2, c^2, d^2\). The adjacency matrix \(W\) \[\begin{pmatrix}\ 0\ 1\ 0\ 0\ \\ \ 1\ 0\ 1\ 0\ \\ \ 0\ 1\ 0\ 1\ \\ \ 0\ 0\ 1\ 0\ \end{pmatrix}\] contributes terms \(ab, ba, bc, cb, cd, dc\). We group the terms in \(D - W\) as follows: \((a^2 - 2ab + b^2), (b^2 - 2bc + c^2), (c^2 - 2cd + d^2)\) which rewrites to \({(a - b)}^2, {(b - c)}^2, {(c - d})^2\).

Note that while adjacency is symmetric, i.e., \(b\) is adjacent to \(a\) and \(c\) is adjacent to \(b\), the pairwise difference counts *pairs* of neighbors, hence the name. Therefore, the specification of the pairwise difference form includes the constraint on the indices \(i\) and \(j\) for the summation that \(i < j\), as is done in Besag and Kooperberg 1995.

In this section we provide an efficient implementation of a simple ICAR component in Stan. To check our work, we compute a spatial prior on a small dataset.

The encoding of adjacency as entries of either \(0\) or \(1\) in an \(N \times N\) adjacency matrix is equivalent to an undirected graph with set of \(N\) nodes and a set of edges, one edge per pair of non-zero entries \(\{i,j\}\) and \(\{j,i\}\). The cardinality of this edge set is equal to the number of non-zero entries in either the upper or lower triangular matrix.

For large values of \(N\), storing and traversing a full \(N \times N\) adjacency matrix is computationally expensive. As the adjacency matrix for areal data is a sparse matrix whose triangular matrices are also sparse, encoding the non-zero entries as an edge set requires less storage. This is also the natural encoding for computing pairwise differences \({({\phi}_i - {\phi}_j)}^2\). Furthermore, the pairwise difference formulation doesn’t use information about the nodes, only the edges, thus we don’t even need to store the node set explicitly, we only need to store \(N\).

In Stan, we create two parallel integer arrays `node1`

and `node2`

which store edge information, together with integer values `N`

, the number of nodes, and `N_edges`

, the number of edges. These two arrays are (implicitly) indexed by the ordinal value of node \(i\) in the graph, thus we don’t need to store the list of node ids. These are declared in the data block of a Stan program as follows:

```
data {
int<lower=0> N;
int<lower=0> N_edges;
int<lower=1, upper=N> node1[N_edges];
int<lower=1, upper=N> node2[N_edges];
```

Stan’s multiple indexing feature allows multiple indexes to be provided for containers (i.e., arrays, vectors, and matrices) in a single index position on that container, where the multiple indexes are either an array of integer values or range bounds. Using the entries in arrays `node1`

and `node2`

as multiple indexes, we compute the pairwise differences \({\phi}_i - {\phi}_j\) as:

```
phi[node1] - phi[node2] // multi-indexing and vectorization!
```

The log probability density of \(\phi\) is: \[-{\frac{1}{2}} \left( \sum_{i \sim j} {({\phi}_i - {\phi}_j)}^2 \right) + \mbox{const}\] Since Stan computes up to a proportion, the constant term drops out.

As noted above, \(\phi\) is non-identifiable; adding any constant to all of the elements of \(\phi\) leaves the distribution unchanged. Therefore we must add the constraint \(\sum_{i} {\phi}_i = 0\). This can be implemented as a hard sum-to-zero constraint by declaring an parameter vector of length \(N - 1\) with a corresponding transformed parameter vector of length \(N\) whose n-th element is negation of the sum of the parameter vector. Another option is to set up a soft sum-to-zero constraint using a prior on \({\phi}\) which tightly constrains the mean of \({\phi}\) to be within some epsilon of zero. Having explored both options, we found that Stan’s HMC sampler runs faster on models which have a soft sum-to-zero constraint.

The following program fragment shows the Stan parameter and model block to compute the spatial effects vector \({\phi}\). The Stan function `dot_self`

computes the dot product of a vector with itself, i.e., it computes the quantity \({({\phi}_i - {\phi}_j)}^2\):

```
parameters {
vector[N] phi;
}
model {
target += -0.5 * dot_self(phi[node1] - phi[node2]);
// soft sum-to-zero constraint on phi)
sum(phi) ~ normal(0, 0.001 * N); // equivalent to mean(phi) ~ normal(0,0.001)
}
```

To check our work, we build a simple Stan model which takes in the neighborhood structure of the counties of Scotland and use it to compute the spatial ICAR prior. We then compare our results against those obtained by running an equivalent BUGS model which calls the WinBUGS/GeoBUGS function `car.normal`

.

The Stan program is in the file simple_iar.stan. It consists of just the statements discussed in the preceding section:

`writeLines(readLines('simple_iar.stan'))`

```
data {
int<lower=0> N;
int<lower=0> N_edges;
int<lower=1, upper=N> node1[N_edges]; // node1[i] adjacent to node2[i]
int<lower=1, upper=N> node2[N_edges]; // and node1[i] < node2[i]
}
parameters {
vector[N] phi;
}
model {
target += -0.5 * dot_self(phi[node1] - phi[node2]);
// soft sum-to-zero constraint on phi)
sum(phi) ~ normal(0, 0.01 * N); // equivalent to mean(phi) ~ normal(0,0.01)
}
```

The data comes from the Scotland lip cancer dataset originally presented by Clayton and Kaldor 1987, but here we use the version of the data downloaded from Brad Carlin’s software page, file named “Lipsbrad.odc”, which is an OpenBUGS data format file containing a WinBUGS model, data, and inits. We’ve edited the data into file scotland_data.R. It defines a list named `data`

with the following fields:

`y`

: the observed lip cancer case counts on a per-county basis`x`

: an area-specific continuous covariate that represents the proportion of the population employed in agriculture, fishing, or forestry (AFF)`E`

: the expected number of cases, used as an offset,`adj`

: a list of region ids for adjacent regions`num`

: a list of the number of neighbors for each region

Elements `adj`

and `num`

describe the neighborhood structure of the counties in Scotland. We have written a helper function mungeCARdata4stan which can transform the fields `data$adj`

and `data$num`

into a list structure with fields `N`

, `N_edges`

, `node1`

, and `node2`

which correspond to the inputs required by the Stan model.

The script fit_simple_iar_stan.R compiles and runs the model on the Scotland data. To check that this model recovers the spatial relationships, we compare the Stan results to those obtained by fitting the same data to the equivalent BUGS model which is in the file simple_iar.txt. We use the R R2OpenBugs package to this model via OpenBUGS, which requires that we wrap the BUGS model in a function statement for R:

`writeLines(readLines('simple_iar.txt'))`

```
simple_iar <- function() {
phi[1:N]~car.normal(adj[],weights[],num[],1)
}
```

The following description of the `car.normal`

function and arguments is taken from the GeoBUGS manual:
The intrinsic Gaussian CAR prior distribution is specified using the distribution

`car.normal`

for the vector of random variables S = ( S1, ….., SN ) where: S[1:N] ~ car.normal(adj[], weights[], num[], tau)The parameters to this function are:

- adj[]: A vector listing the ID numbers of the adjacent areas for each area.
- weights[] : A vector the same length as adj[] giving unnormalized weights associated with each pair of areas.
- num[] : A vector of length N (the total number of areas) giving the number of neighbors for each area.
- tau: A scalar argument representing the precision (inverse variance) parameter. ()
The first 3 arguments must be entered as data (it is currently not possible to allow the weights to be unknown); the final variable tau is usually treated as unknown and so is assigned a prior distribution.

The script fit_simple_iar_bugs.R compiles and runs the model on the Scotland data.

We fit both models running 2 chains for a total of 10,000 iterations of which 9000 are warmup/burnin which results in a sample of 2000 draws. We use RStan to print the posterior summary statistics for the fit object returned by ROpenBugs.

Below we compare the results for the first 10 elements of \({\phi}\): The RStan output column “se_mean” reports the Monte Carlo standard error, which reflects the uncertainty from the simulation.

```
mean se_mean sd 2.5% 97.5% n_eff Rhat
(stan) phi[1] 0.000 0.037 0.806 -1.548 1.630 473 1.004
(bugs) phi[1] -0.009 0.017 0.769 -1.559 1.524 1900 1.000
(stan) phi[2] 0.029 0.042 1.012 -1.930 2.055 572 1.005
(bugs) phi[2] 0.005 0.022 0.994 -1.979 1.912 1900 1.000
(stan) phi[3] 0.005 0.068 1.369 -2.833 2.593 409 1.000
(bugs) phi[3] 0.007 0.032 1.398 -2.730 2.645 1950 1.000
(stan) phi[4] 0.015 0.041 0.959 -1.895 1.899 552 1.000
(bugs) phi[4] 0.005 0.021 0.918 -1.748 1.838 1900 1.003
(stan) phi[5] -0.001 0.039 0.788 -1.581 1.557 413 1.003
(bugs) phi[5] 0.005 0.018 0.792 -1.509 1.568 1900 1.001
(stan) phi[6] -0.033 0.081 1.657 -3.348 3.219 421 1.000
(bugs) phi[6] -0.002 0.038 1.693 -3.281 3.183 1977 1.000
(stan) phi[7] -0.005 0.036 0.757 -1.455 1.444 453 1.008
(bugs) phi[7] -0.003 0.016 0.734 -1.397 1.476 1900 0.999
(stan) phi[8] -0.022 0.085 1.916 -3.873 3.584 513 1.000
(bugs) phi[8] 0.024 0.045 1.986 -3.794 3.860 1958 0.999
(stan) phi[9] -0.006 0.026 0.595 -1.185 1.199 529 1.005
(bugs) phi[9] 0.016 0.013 0.596 -1.108 1.157 1900 0.999
(stan) phi[10] -0.002 0.039 0.853 -1.691 1.727 480 1.006
(bugs) phi[10] 0.018 0.018 0.822 -1.595 1.580 2000 0.999
```

As both simulations are within se_mean of one another, we conclude that they have both converged to the same posterior distribution. From this we conclude that the Stan model correctly implements the ICAR model as specified above.

Adding a CAR spatially structured error term to a multi-level GLM provides spatial smoothing of the resulting estimates. The lognormal Poisson model proposed in Besag York Mollié 1991 is used for count data in biostatistics and epidemiology. It includes both an ICAR component for spatial smoothing and an ordinary random-effects component for non-spatial heterogeneity.

Implementations of this model are available via R, BUGS, and JAGS as well as INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation) which is a fast alternative to MCMC, (INLA trades speed and scalability for accuracy, per the “no free lunch” principle). Banerjee Carlin and Gelfand 2003, section 5.4, presents the details of this model and its difficulties, together with a WinBUGS implementation which they use to fit the Scottish lip cancer dataset from Clayton and Kaldor 1987.

Using the notation of Banerjee et al., the Besag York Mollié model is: \[ Y_i \, \vert \, \psi_i \sim Poisson ( E_i \, e^{\psi_i}), \] for \(i \in 1:N\), where \[ \psi = x \beta + \theta + \phi \] and

\(x\) is the matrix of explanatory spatial covariates such that \(x_i\) is the vector of covariates for areal unit \(i\). The coefficients \(\beta\) are called “fixed effects.”

\(\theta\) is an ordinary random-effects components for non-spatial heterogeneity.

\(\phi\) is an ICAR spatial component.

The pairwise difference formulation of the ICAR spatial component \(\phi\) is non-identifiable. Adding the constraint that \(\phi\) must sum to zero centers it, allowing the model to fit both the fixed-effect intercept term as well as \(\phi\) and \(\theta\).

The convolution of the random effects components \(\phi\) and \(\theta\) is difficult to fit without strong constraints on one of the two components, as either component can account for most or all of the individual-level variance. Without any hyperpriors on \(\phi\) and \(\theta\) the sampler will be forced to explore many extreme posterior probability distributions; the sampler will go very slowly or fail to fit the data altogether. The example model used to fit the Scotland lip cancer dataset in Banerjee Carlin and Gelfand 2003 uses gamma hyperpriors on the precision parameters \({\tau}_{\phi}\) and \({\tau}_{\theta}\), see discussion of “CAR models and their difficulties”, section 5.4. The precision of \(\phi\), `tau_phi`

is given the hyperprior `gamma(1, 1)`

while the precision of \(\theta\) is given the hyperprior `gamma(3.2761, 1.81)`

. This is intended to make a “fair” prior which places equal emphasis on both spatial and non-spatial variance, based on the formula from Bernardinelli et al. (1995):

\[ \textit{sd} ({\theta}_i) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{\tau}_{\phi}} \approx \frac{1}{0.7 \sqrt{ \bar m {\tau}_{\theta}}} \approx \textit{sd}({\phi}_i) \]

We use these same hyperpriors for the precision of the random effects when implementing this model in Stan. These particular values allows the model to fit the Scotland data. However, the assumptions underlying the use of this choice of hyperpriors and the actual values used for the gamma hyperprior on `tau_theta`

depend on \(\bar m\), which is the average number of neighbors across all regions in the dataset, which means that they are dependent on the dataset being analyzed and must be reevaluated for each new dataset accordingly.

A Stan model which implements the BYM model for the Scotland dataset, i.e., univariate data plus offset, is in the file bym_predictor_plus_offset.stan.

`writeLines(readLines('bym_predictor_plus_offset.stan'))`

```
// use for Scotland dataset
data {
int<lower=0> N;
int<lower=0> N_edges;
int<lower=1, upper=N> node1[N_edges]; // node1[i] adjacent to node2[i]
int<lower=1, upper=N> node2[N_edges]; // and node1[i] < node2[i]
int<lower=0> y[N]; // count outcomes
vector[N] x; // predictor
vector<lower=0>[N] E; // exposure
}
transformed data {
vector[N] log_E = log(E);
}
parameters {
real beta0; // intercept
real beta1; // slope
real<lower=0> tau_theta; // precision of heterogeneous effects
real<lower=0> tau_phi; // precision of spatial effects
vector[N] theta; // heterogeneous effects
vector[N] phi; // spatial effects
}
transformed parameters {
real<lower=0> sigma_theta = inv(sqrt(tau_theta)); // convert precision to sigma
real<lower=0> sigma_phi = inv(sqrt(tau_phi)); // convert precision to sigma
}
model {
y ~ poisson_log(log_E + beta0 + beta1 * x + phi * sigma_phi + theta * sigma_theta);
// NOTE: no prior on phi_raw, it is used to construct phi
// the following computes the prior on phi on the unit scale with sd = 1
target += -0.5 * dot_self(phi[node1] - phi[node2]);
// soft sum-to-zero constraint on phi)
sum(phi) ~ normal(0, 0.001 * N); // equivalent to mean(phi) ~ normal(0,0.001)
beta0 ~ normal(0, 5);
beta1 ~ normal(0, 5);
theta ~ normal(0, 1);
tau_theta ~ gamma(3.2761, 1.81); // Carlin WinBUGS priors
tau_phi ~ gamma(1, 1); // Carlin WinBUGS priors
}
generated quantities {
vector[N] mu = exp(log_E + beta0 + beta1 * x + phi * sigma_phi + theta * sigma_theta);
}
```

This model builds on the model in file `simple_iar.stan`

:

- the data block has declarations for the outcome, covariate data, and exposure data for the Poisson regression.
- a transformed data block is used to put the exposure data on the log scale
- the set of model parameters now includes the parameters
`beta0`

and`beta1`

for the fixed effects slope and intercept terms, vector`theta`

for ordinary random effects, and vector`phi`

for spatial random effects, and precision parameters`tau_theta`

and`tau_phi`

(following Banerjee et al). - we use the non-centered parameterization for both the ordinary and spatial random effects.
- in the model block we put priors on all parameters excepting
`phi_std_raw`

.

To test this model with real data, we ran it on the version of the Scotland Lip Cancer dataset in file scotland_data.R, described in the previous section. The R script fit_scotland.R fits the model to the data.

```
library(rstan)
options(mc.cores = parallel::detectCores())
source("mungeCARdata4stan.R")
source("scotland_data.R")
y = data$y;
x = 0.1 * data$x;
E = data$E;
nbs = mungeCARdata4stan(data$adj, data$num);
N = nbs$N;
node1 = nbs$node1;
node2 = nbs$node2;
N_edges = nbs$N_edges;
bym_scot_stanfit = stan("bym_predictor_plus_offset.stan", data=list(N,N_edges,node1,node2,y,x,E), control=list(adapt_delta = 0.97, stepsize = 0.1), chains=3, warmup=9000, iter=10000, save_warmup=FALSE);
print(bym_scot_stanfit, pars=c("beta0", "beta1", "sigma_phi", "tau_phi", "sigma_theta", "tau_theta", "mu[5]", "phi[5]", "theta[5]"), probs=c(0.025, 0.5, 0.975));
```

```
Inference for Stan model: bym_predictor_plus_offset.
3 chains, each with iter=10000; warmup=9000; thin=1;
post-warmup draws per chain=1000, total post-warmup draws=3000.
mean se_mean sd 2.5% 50% 97.5% n_eff Rhat
beta0 -0.28 0.00 0.17 -0.62 -0.28 0.04 1613 1
beta1 0.42 0.00 0.17 0.09 0.42 0.75 1530 1
sigma_phi 0.67 0.00 0.13 0.45 0.65 0.96 1320 1
tau_phi 2.52 0.03 1.02 1.08 2.34 4.93 1423 1
sigma_theta 0.48 0.00 0.07 0.37 0.48 0.63 3000 1
tau_theta 4.55 0.02 1.25 2.52 4.40 7.37 3000 1
mu[5] 14.22 0.07 3.62 7.97 13.87 22.07 3000 1
phi[5] 1.27 0.01 0.48 0.32 1.26 2.24 1667 1
theta[5] 0.40 0.01 0.70 -1.03 0.40 1.75 3000 1
Samples were drawn using NUTS(diag_e) at Mon Jan 22 16:42:57 2018.
For each parameter, n_eff is a crude measure of effective sample size,
and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor on split chains (at
convergence, Rhat=1).
```

The priors on all parameters match the priors on the corresponding WinBUGS model in the file “Lipsbrad.odc”. To check this model, we use OpenBUGS and R package R2OpenBugs to fit the WinBUGS version. We have edited the WinBUGS program so that the variable names match the names used in the Stan model, also we have changed the parameterization of the heterogenous random effects component `theta`

to the non-centered parameterization. Our version of the WinBUGS model is in file bym_bugs_carlin.txt. The R script fit_scotland_bugs.R uses OpenBUGS to fit this model.

```
options(digits=2);
sims[c("beta0","beta1","sigma_phi","tau_phi","sigma_theta","tau_theta","mu[5]","phi[5]","theta[5]"),];
```

```
mean se_mean sd 2.5% 97.5% n_eff Rhat
beta0 -0.29 0.00216 0.167 -0.62 0.038 5992 1
beta1 0.42 0.00237 0.166 0.09 0.743 4903 1
sigma_phi 0.67 0.00162 0.133 0.45 0.964 6752 1
tau_phi 2.52 0.01249 1.018 1.08 4.997 6647 1
sigma_theta 0.48 0.00054 0.068 0.36 0.630 15434 1
tau_theta 4.60 0.01004 1.281 2.52 7.517 16279 1
mu[5] 14.15 0.01717 3.435 8.33 21.750 40000 1
phi[5] 0.83 0.00282 0.307 0.25 1.453 11796 1
theta[5] 0.41 0.00547 0.700 -1.00 1.753 16372 1
```

WinBUGS and Stan produce compatible estimates of the parameters and quantities of interest for this model when run on the Scotland dataset. For this model, the fit is achieved by careful choice of the hyperpriors, in particular, the choice of the gamma hyperprior on `tau_theta`

which depends on \(\bar m\), the average number of neighbors across all regions in the dataset. These values may not work so well for data with a different spatial structure.

Although the previous section shows that Stan can comfortably fit disease mapping models, there are some difficulties with the standard parameterization of the BYM model. In particular, it’s quite challenging to set sensible priors on the precisions of the structured and unstructured random effects. While the recommendations of Bernardinelli et al. (1995) are ok, it’s better to re-state the model in an equivalent way that removes the problem. To some extent, this is a Bayesian version of Gelman’s famous “Folk Theorem”: if it’s hard to set priors, then you model is probably wrong!

In the discussion of disease risk mapping in the original BYM paper, the spatial and non-spatial random effects are added to the Poisson model to account for over-dispersion (called “extra-Poisson variation”), not modelled by the Poisson variates. The use of two components is motivated by the concern that the the observed variance isn’t fully explained by the spatial structure of the data. Fitting a model which includes an ordinary random effects component \(\theta\) as well as a spatial ICAR component \(\phi\) is difficult because either component can account for most or all of the individual-level variance. Riebler et al 2016 provides an excellent summary of the underlying problem as well as a survey of the subsequent refinements to the parameterization and choice of priors for this model.

The BYM2 model was proposed by Riebler et al 2016, following Simpson 2014. Like the BYM model, it includes two random effects components, and like the alternative Leroux (1999) model, it places a single precision (scale) parameter on the combined components, and a mixing parameter for the amount of spatial/non-spatial variation. The combined random effects component for the BYM2 model are written as:

\[\theta + \phi = \sigma (\sqrt{1-\rho}\theta^* + \sqrt{\rho}\phi^* ),\] where

- \(\sigma\geq 0\) is the
*overall*standard deviation - \(\rho \in [0,1]\) models how much of the variance comes from the spatially structured effect and how much comes from the spatially unstructured effect
- \(\theta^* \sim N(0,I)\) is the unstructured random effect with fixed standard deviation \(1\)
- \(\phi^*\) is the ICAR model scaled so \(\operatorname{Var}(\phi_i) \approx 1\)

In order for \(\sigma\) to legitimately be the standard deviation of the random effect, it is **critical** that, for each \(i\), \(\operatorname{Var}(\theta_i) \approx \operatorname{Var}(\phi_i) \approx 1\). This **is not automatic** for ICAR models, where every component of \(\theta\) will have a different variance. Riebler et al. (2016) recommend scaling the model so the geometric mean of these variances is 1. For the elements of \(\phi^*\), this scaling factor is computed from the adjacency matrix using the R-INLA package’s function `inla.scale.model`

. With this re-parameterization, it is now easy to set priors. Following Riebler et al, we recommend:

- A standard prior on the standard deviation such as a half-normal, a half-t or an exponential.
- A beta(1/2,1/2) prior on \(\rho\).

Riebler et al. also propose a more sophisticated prior on \(\rho\) which accounts for the fact that the two random effects are different “sizes”. For more information about this re-parameterization, see Riebler et al. (2016), Dean et al. (2001), and Wakefield (2007).

The Stan code for this model can be found at bym2.stan

`writeLines(readLines('bym2.stan'))`

```
data {
int<lower=0> N;
int<lower=0> N_edges;
int<lower=1, upper=N> node1[N_edges]; // node1[i] adjacent to node2[i]
int<lower=1, upper=N> node2[N_edges]; // and node1[i] < node2[i]
int<lower=0> y[N]; // count outcomes
vector<lower=0>[N] E; // exposure
int<lower=1> K; // num covariates
matrix[N, K] x; // design matrix
real<lower=0> scaling_factor; // scales the variance of the spatial effects
}
transformed data {
vector[N] log_E = log(E);
}
parameters {
real beta0; // intercept
vector[K] betas; // covariates
real<lower=0> sigma; // overall standard deviation
real<lower=0, upper=1> rho; // proportion unstructured vs. spatially structured variance
vector[N] theta; // heterogeneous effects
vector[N] phi; // spatial effects
}
transformed parameters {
vector[N] convolved_re;
// variance of each component should be approximately equal to 1
convolved_re = sqrt(1 - rho) * theta + sqrt(rho / scaling_factor) * phi;
}
model {
y ~ poisson_log(log_E + beta0 + x * betas + convolved_re * sigma); // co-variates
// This is the prior for phi! (up to proportionality)
target += -0.5 * dot_self(phi[node1] - phi[node2]);
beta0 ~ normal(0.0, 2.5);
betas ~ normal(0.0, 2.5);
theta ~ normal(0.0, 1.0);
sigma ~ normal(0,5);
rho ~ beta(0.5, 0.5);
// soft sum-to-zero constraint on phi)
sum(phi) ~ normal(0, 0.001 * N); // equivalent to mean(phi) ~ normal(0,0.001)
}
generated quantities {
real logit_rho = log(rho / (1.0 - rho));
vector[N] eta = log_E + beta0 + x * betas + convolved_re * sigma; // co-variates
vector[N] mu = exp(eta);
}
```

To test this model with real data, we ran it on the version of the Scotland Lip Cancer dataset in file scotland_data.R, described in the previous section. The R script fit_scotland.R fits the model to the data. This code includes details on how to compute the scaling factor using the INLA library.

```
library(rstan)
options(mc.cores = parallel::detectCores())
library(INLA)
source("mungeCARdata4stan.R")
source("scotland_data.R")
y = data$y;
E = data$E;
K = 1;
x = 0.1 * data$x;
nbs = mungeCARdata4stan(data$adj, data$num);
N = nbs$N;
node1 = nbs$node1;
node2 = nbs$node2;
N_edges = nbs$N_edges;
#Build the adjacency matrix using INLA library functions
adj.matrix = sparseMatrix(i=nbs$node1,j=nbs$node2,x=1,symmetric=TRUE)
#The ICAR precision matrix (note! This is singular)
Q= Diagonal(nbs$N, rowSums(adj.matrix)) - adj.matrix
#Add a small jitter to the diagonal for numerical stability (optional but recommended)
Q_pert = Q + Diagonal(nbs$N) * max(diag(Q)) * sqrt(.Machine$double.eps)
# Compute the diagonal elements of the covariance matrix subject to the
# constraint that the entries of the ICAR sum to zero.
#See the inla.qinv function help for further details.
Q_inv = inla.qinv(Q_pert, constr=list(A = matrix(1,1,nbs$N),e=0))
#Compute the geometric mean of the variances, which are on the diagonal of Q.inv
scaling_factor = exp(mean(log(diag(Q_inv))))
scot_stanfit = stan("bym2_predictor_plus_offset.stan", data=list(N,N_edges,node1,node2,y,x,E,scaling_factor), warmup=5000, iter=6000);
print(scot_stanfit, pars=c("beta0", "beta1", "rho", "sigma", "log_precision", "logit_rho", "mu[5]", "phi[5]", "theta[5]"), probs=c(0.025, 0.5, 0.975));
```

```
Inference for Stan model: bym2_predictor_plus_offset.
4 chains, each with iter=6000; warmup=5000; thin=1;
post-warmup draws per chain=1000, total post-warmup draws=4000.
mean se_mean sd 2.5% 50% 97.5% n_eff Rhat
beta0 -0.22 0.00 0.13 -0.47 -0.22 0.03 2170 1
beta1 0.37 0.00 0.13 0.10 0.37 0.62 1893 1
rho 0.87 0.01 0.14 0.48 0.93 1.00 477 1
sigma 0.52 0.00 0.09 0.37 0.51 0.71 863 1
log_precision 1.35 0.01 0.33 0.69 1.35 2.00 856 1
logit_rho 3.01 0.09 2.27 -0.09 2.59 8.65 610 1
mu[5] 13.76 0.05 3.19 8.39 13.46 20.88 4000 1
phi[5] 1.41 0.01 0.41 0.68 1.39 2.26 1536 1
theta[5] 0.19 0.02 0.96 -1.72 0.19 2.04 4000 1
Samples were drawn using NUTS(diag_e) at Mon Jan 22 18:55:08 2018.
For each parameter, n_eff is a crude measure of effective sample size,
and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor on split chains (at
convergence, Rhat=1).
```

To see how this re-parameterization affects the fit, we reprint the results of fitting the Scotland data using the previous version of the BYM model, printing only the parameters and generated quantities shared by these two models:

`print(bym_scot_stanfit, pars=c("beta0", "beta1", "mu[5]"), probs=c(0.025, 0.5, 0.975));`

```
Inference for Stan model: bym_predictor_plus_offset.
3 chains, each with iter=10000; warmup=9000; thin=1;
post-warmup draws per chain=1000, total post-warmup draws=3000.
mean se_mean sd 2.5% 50% 97.5% n_eff Rhat
beta0 -0.28 0.00 0.17 -0.62 -0.28 0.04 1756 1
beta1 0.42 0.00 0.17 0.08 0.42 0.75 1554 1
mu[5] 14.12 0.06 3.48 8.24 13.82 21.40 3000 1
Samples were drawn using NUTS(diag_e) at Mon Jan 22 15:52:48 2018.
For each parameter, n_eff is a crude measure of effective sample size,
and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor on split chains (at
convergence, Rhat=1).
```

As a further check, we compare the results of using Stan implementation of the BYM2 model to fit the Scotland lip cancer dataset with the results obtained by using INLA’s implementation of the BYM2 model. The script to run INLA using package R-INLA is in file fit_scotland_inla_bym2.R. After fitting the model, we print the values for the fixed effects parameters, i.e., the slope and intercept terms `beta0`

and `beta1`

:

```
> inla_bym2$summary.fixed
mean sd 0.025quant 0.5quant 0.975quant mode kld
(Intercept) -0.2215948 0.1265029 -0.4711830 -0.2215091 0.02705429 -0.2214959 1.472228e-08
x 0.3706808 0.1320332 0.1054408 0.3725290 0.62566048 0.3762751 4.162445e-09
```

To demonstrate the scalability of using Stan to compute a spatial ICAR component, we use data taken from the published study: Small-area spatiotemporal analysis of pedestrian and bicyclist injuries in New York City. This dataset was compiled from all reported traffic accidents involving a car and either a pedestrian or bicyclist in New York City between 2001 and 2009, localized to the census tract level. We are using just the 2001 data for total population per census tract and total number of accidents. Although there are 2168 total census tracts in New York City, we only have data for 1929 regions, 8 of which aren’t properly connected to other regions and are therefore omitted for the sake of simplicity.

The traffic accident data is in the file R dumpfile `nyc_subset.data.R`

. It contains a list of the 1921 census tracts IDs used in this study (`nyc_tractIDs`

), the count of injuries per tract in 2001 (`events_2001`

), and the 2001 population per census tract (`pop_2001`

).

```
load("nyc_subset.data.R");
plot(log(pop_2001),events_2001,xlab="log(population)",ylab="observed events", pch=20);
```

The Stan program is in the file bym2_offset_only.stan. This program implements the BYM model for a Poisson regression with no covariates, only an offset term.

Spatial information is in a set of files in directory `nycTracts10`

. The spatial information for the census tracts is obtained via the R `maptools`

and `spdep`

packages. We use these packages to create an `nb`

object which is a list of all neighbors for each census tract. Each list entry is itself a list containing the relative index of the neighboring regions. We have written a set of R helper functions nb_data_funs.R. The function `nb2graph`

takes an `nb`

object as input and returns a list containing the input data objects `N`

, `N_edges`

, `node1`

, and `node2`

. The function `scale_nb_components`

takes an `nb`

object as input and returns a vector of scaling factors for all graph components. For this case study, we are working with a fully connected neighborhood graph, therefore this function returns a vector of length 1.

The script fit_nyc_bym2.R fits the BYM2 Stan model to the 2001 NYC traffic accident data and saves the resulting `stanfit`

object as an R dumpfile.

```
library(maptools);
library(spdep);
library(rgdal)
library(rstan);
options(mc.cores = 3);
load("nyc_subset.data.R");
nyc_shp<-readOGR("nycTracts10", layer="nycTracts10");
```

```
OGR data source with driver: ESRI Shapefile
Source: "nycTracts10", layer: "nycTracts10"
with 2168 features
It has 14 fields
Integer64 fields read as strings: ALAND10 AWATER10
```

```
geoids <- nyc_shp$GEOID10 %in% nyc_tractIDs;
nyc_subset_shp <- nyc_shp[geoids,];
nyc_subset_shp <- nyc_subset_shp[order(nyc_subset_shp$GEOID10),];
nb_nyc_subset = poly2nb(nyc_subset_shp);
y = events_2001
E = pop_2001;
## set pop > 0 so we can use log(pop) as offset
E[E < 10] = 10;
source("nb_data_funs.R");
nbs=nb2graph(nb_nyc_subset);
N = nbs$N;
node1 = nbs$node1;
node2 = nbs$node2;
N_edges = nbs$N_edges;
scaling_factor = scale_nb_components(nb_nyc_subset)[1];
bym2_stan = stan_model("bym2_offset_only.stan");
bym2_fit = sampling(bym2_stan, data=list(N,N_edges,node1,node2,y,E,scaling_factor), control = list(adapt_delta = 0.97), chains=3, warmup=7000, iter=8000, save_warmup=FALSE);
print(bym2_fit, digits=3, pars=c("beta0", "rho", "sigma", "mu[1]", "mu[2]", "mu[3]", "mu[500]", "mu[1000]", "mu[1500]", "mu[1900]", "phi[1]", "phi[2]", "phi[3]", "phi[500]", "phi[1000]", "phi[1500]", "phi[1900]", "theta[1]", "theta[2]", "theta[3]", "theta[500]", "theta[1000]", "theta[1500]", "theta[1900]"), probs=c(0.025, 0.5, 0.975));
```

```
Inference for Stan model: bym2_offset_only.
3 chains, each with iter=8000; warmup=7000; thin=1;
post-warmup draws per chain=1000, total post-warmup draws=3000.
mean se_mean sd 2.5% 50% 97.5% n_eff Rhat
beta0 -6.617 0.000 0.024 -6.665 -6.616 -6.571 2357 1.000
rho 0.547 0.002 0.039 0.473 0.548 0.623 283 1.010
sigma 1.189 0.002 0.034 1.125 1.188 1.260 381 1.009
mu[1] 1.398 0.017 0.938 0.273 1.182 3.767 3000 1.000
mu[2] 1.586 0.018 0.985 0.365 1.354 4.121 3000 1.000
mu[3] 0.905 0.012 0.655 0.166 0.735 2.542 3000 1.000
mu[500] 21.404 0.083 4.529 13.397 21.055 31.045 3000 1.000
mu[1000] 1.709 0.019 1.015 0.413 1.493 4.233 3000 1.000
mu[1500] 2.200 0.022 1.224 0.559 1.956 5.175 3000 1.001
mu[1900] 0.991 0.013 0.734 0.166 0.797 2.834 3000 1.000
phi[1] -1.717 0.012 0.652 -3.001 -1.712 -0.447 3000 1.001
phi[2] -0.888 0.009 0.483 -1.826 -0.876 0.018 3000 1.000
phi[3] -1.258 0.009 0.485 -2.239 -1.248 -0.322 3000 1.002
phi[500] 1.132 0.007 0.387 0.359 1.126 1.889 3000 1.000
phi[1000] -0.427 0.008 0.443 -1.302 -0.427 0.453 3000 1.000
phi[1500] -0.170 0.008 0.431 -0.989 -0.183 0.681 3000 1.000
phi[1900] -2.133 0.013 0.524 -3.204 -2.123 -1.143 1604 1.003
theta[1] -1.151 0.015 0.839 -2.823 -1.139 0.496 3000 0.999
theta[2] -0.479 0.014 0.784 -2.034 -0.464 1.052 3000 0.999
theta[3] -0.726 0.015 0.824 -2.366 -0.706 0.817 3000 1.000
theta[500] 0.422 0.010 0.538 -0.628 0.420 1.517 3000 1.001
theta[1000] -1.393 0.014 0.760 -2.940 -1.353 0.022 3000 1.000
theta[1500] -0.157 0.014 0.757 -1.667 -0.138 1.306 3000 1.000
theta[1900] -0.004 0.016 0.863 -1.757 0.012 1.677 3000 0.999
Samples were drawn using NUTS(diag_e) at Tue Jan 23 02:40:02 2018.
For each parameter, n_eff is a crude measure of effective sample size,
and Rhat is the potential scale reduction factor on split chains (at
convergence, Rhat=1).
```

`save(bym2_fit, file="nyc_bym2_fit.data.R");`

The Rhat values indicate good convergences, and the n_eff numbers, while low for `rho`

and `sigma`

, are sufficient. ICAR models require a large number of warmup iterations; for this model, at least 7000 are required for a good fit. On a 2015 13-inch MacBook pro with 2 CPUs, running 3 chains took for a total of 8000 iterations took 5 hours to fit.

We use `maptools`

, `ggplot2`

and related packages to visualize the data and the model fits for a simple Poisson GLM, a Poisson GLM with a simple random effects component, a Poisson GLM with just an ICAR spatial smoothing component, and the BYM2 model.

The data subset that we are using for this case study is limited to 1921 out of a total of 2168 census tract regions. To see the neighbor relations between these census tracts we use the `maptools`

, `spdep`

, `ggplot2`

, and `ggmap`

packages to overlay the neighborhood graph on top of the Google Maps terrain map for New York city: